Patterns of Influenza Pandemics (Part 2)

Over the last few decades there has been a number of global pandemics these are;

1957 Asian Flu is à Similar to 1889 Influenza virus
1968 Hong Kong Flu is à Similar to the 1900 Influenza virus

The 11 and 50 year hypothesis works reasonably well with the dates above but it quickly breaks down when we use it to predict what has happened since. According to this idea the next pandemic should have occurred in 1979 and the one after that in 1990. But there hasn’t been anything global since 1968.

There has, however, been many localized incidence of influenza like diseases. But these have often been contained within small geographic locations and often disappeared as quickly as they arrived.

It seems that influenza is truly random in its characteristics and random in its behavior. No one can really predict how virulent the next global influenza outbreak will be and no one can be predict when exactly it will strike.

For more information look at:
http://www.swine-flu-facts.org
http://www.swine-flu-facts.info